Market review from UTEX — week 25

The major US indices closed the week with slight losses: SPY lost 0.36% and Nasdaq lost 0.56%. On Friday, Iran launched missiles at Israel. The conflict could drag on, oil prices rose 7%, and markets fell slightly on this news.

Among large companies, Oracle (+23%) stands out after an excellent report, and Tesla (+13%) amid Musk's apology to Trump. Palantir continues to rewrite historical highs, +7% for the week and already 476% for the year. 

Of the declines, we highlight GE Aerospace, which lost 7%. But it seems that investors just took some profits: since April 7, the stock has risen from $160 to almost $257.

A shortened week is ahead — on Thursday, June 19, the US celebrates Juneteenth, and the stock exchanges will be closed.

On Wednesday, the Fed will decide on interest rates. The probability of no change is estimated at 96.9%. The focus will be on Fed Chair Powell's comments and his current views on the US economy and inflation. The next Fed meeting will be held on July 30, and here things are not so clear-cut — the probability of a 0.25 basis point rate cut is 21.5%.

Bitcoin reached $110,500 on Monday, but then fell back. BTC is currently trading at $106 700.

There will be few reports this week, but new geopolitical risks, the Fed meeting, and Trump's endless tweets promise market volatility. Usually, the weeks before the rate announcement are characterized by nervous, illogical movements. This time, there will be a day off after the meeting, so we urge you to be more careful in your trading.

Top 5 ideas for trading this week

🟡 Major US oil companies. Conflict in the Middle East could drive up oil prices. Only for the mid-term; a very difficult sector for day trading: ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP). 

🟡 Lennar (LEN). Report on June 16 after closing. The second largest construction company in the US by market capitalization. The stock has fallen 30% in six months. Fine as a mid-term idea. Not recommended for intraday — a very challenging sector for day trading.

🔴 Jabil (JBL). Report on June 17 before the market opens. Electronics manufacturer, we have recommended it several times for the mid-term. Reached historic highs before the report. Prices are less attractive, but if there is a decent pullback, it may be worth considering. Since 2020, the stock has risen from $17 to $180.

🟡 CarMax (KMX). Report on June 20 before opening. Used car retailer. Strong support level at $55–$60, which has been holding since the end of 2022. If you want to take a mid-term position, it is better to do so from the level.

🔴 Three recent IPOs that may surprise with volatility this week: Chime Financial (СHYM), Voyager Technologies (VOYG), Circle Internet Group (CRCL).

Trade what suits you best:

🔴 high risk, for the pros;

🟡 medium risk, for traders with little experience.

Profitable trades!

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