Market review from UTEX — week 13
Oil prices threaten recession. Top ideas for trading this week.
Major US indices continue to decline. SPY and Nasdaq lost about 2% for the week. Super Micro Computer shares fell 33% following the case involving smuggling of sanctioned equipment to China. Alibaba Group fell 9% after its report, Eli Lilly dropped 8%, Pepsi declined 6%, and Tesla fell 6%. Top gainers included Lam Research (+7%), GE Vernova (+5%), Wells Fargo (+4%), and Morgan Stanley (+4%).
On Wednesday, the Fed kept rates unchanged as expected. Jerome Powell believes that the sharp rise in oil prices due to the Middle East conflict will lead to higher inflation in the US. The 2026 GDP growth forecast is 2.4% (compared to 2.3% in December). By the end of the year, the Fed expects inflation of 2.7% (up from 2.4% previously). Producer inflation (PPI) jumped to 3.4%, the most since February 2025. Core PPI reached its highest level since March 2023 (3.9% year-over-year, versus a forecast of 3.7%).
Oil prices are rising amid geopolitical tensions. Some analysts warn that a move toward $140–175 could push major economies into recession. Central banks are pointing to renewed inflationary risks. On Saturday, Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran, demanding the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and threatening to destroy Iran's power plants.
There will be very few earnings reports, but notable ones include Cintas, GameStop, Paychex, KB Home, Chewy, Core & Main, PDD Holdings, and Carnival.
Top ideas for trading this week
🔴 Newmont (NEM), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Barrick Gold (GOLD). Global leaders in the mining industry, producers of gold, copper, and silver. Stocks of all three companies have fallen more than 20% over the past month amid a correction in gold prices. The majority of the decline occurred last week. At first glance, midterm prices already look decent, but the bottom has likely not yet been reached, and we may see even stronger selling.
🔴 PDD Holdings (PDD). Earnings report on March 25 before the market opens. Stocks of the Chinese marketplace traditionally see significant movement on earnings day, almost always with a gap and intraday movement. This stock is not for the faint of heart.
🔴 GameStop (GME). Earnings report on March 24 after the market closes. Since June of last year, the meme stock has shown no major moves, trading in the $20–28 range. We'll be watching for surprises.
🔴 Micron Technology (MU), SanDisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), Seagate Technology (STX). Manufacturers of data storage and memory solutions (DRAM, NAND, SSD, HDD) for data centers and AI. Despite the overall market decline, these stocks continue to rise, and volatility is extremely high. For thrill-seekers and intraday traders. Don't forget your stop losses.
🔴 Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA). Both stocks from the Magnificent 7 have lost 20% over the quarter. From a midterm perspective, they already look decent, but the market may offer even lower prices.
High risk — for pros.
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