Market review from UTEX

The U.S. market closed its second consecutive week lower: the SPY lost nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq fell 2%. Tesla and Google dropped 18% and 10%, respectively, after their earnings reports. Also notable decliners included Rollins (−15%), Moderna (−13%), and C.H. Robinson (−11%).

Among the top gainers: Super Micro Computer (+24%), Lockheed Martin (+15%), and International Paper (+12%).

Bitcoin edged up 1% over the seven days to $65,120. Ethereum rose 4%, currently trading at $1,936.

Due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, U.S. WTI crude traded around $90 per barrel on Friday, up from $82 a week earlier and $69 at the start of July. Over the past three days, the US and Iran have ceased strikes.

Donald Trump announced new import tariffs on dozens of the United States' largest trading partners, including the European Union. The new tariffs will range from 10% to 12.5%. They will replace the temporary 10% tariffs that had been in place since February. The president also announced 50% tariffs on goods from Canada and 100% tariffs on generics within two years to encourage the relocation of drug manufacturing to the U.S.

On Wednesday, the Fed will decide on interest rates. The market is pricing in a 38% probability of a rate hike. A week ago, that probability was around 14%. By September, investors expect a rate hike with 85% probability. On Thursday, the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — will be released.

Four companies from the Magnificent Seven will report in the coming days: Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday; Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Their results will be another test of whether the billions poured into AI investments are justified.

About a quarter of S&P 500 companies have already reported. Based on the data released so far, FactSet raised its earnings growth expectations for index companies from 24.8% to 37.9%. Apart from the Big Tech names, quarterly results this week will also come from Visa, Boeing, Coca‑Cola, Qualcomm, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and AbbVie.

Top trading ideas for this week

🔴 Seagate Technology (STX). Report on July 28 after market close. Analysts expect strong results driven by massive demand for data storage infrastructure for AI and cloud data centers. The stock has already pulled back 20% from its late‑June highs, but investors may continue to take profits. Strong performance in high‑capacity drive deployments and progress on the Mozaic 4+ technology could add optimism and confidence among buyers.

🔴 Microsoft (MSFT). Report on July 29 after market close. The stock is now trading at levels last seen a year ago, having given up all of its first‑half gains. The market is pricing in strong operational results supported by robust demand for AI services. But investors are concerned about aggressive AI infrastructure spending — over $40 billion in the quarter alone, with the annual plan around $190 billion. The market wants to see adequate returns and commercialization.

🔴 Meta Platforms (META). Report on July 29 after market close. Results are expected to be strong, driven by greater efficiency in digital advertising, but risks remain in rising expenses. Capital expenditures are the main "swing" factor. Meta raised its 2026 CapEx guidance to an unprecedented $125–$145 billion for AI infrastructure. Investors want to see that these outlays are justified, and they will assess how much AI algorithms are boosting conversion rates, ad impressions, and average cost per click.

🔴 Apple (AAPL). Report on July 30 after market close. Investors are waiting for updates on the monetization of AI features, user engagement trends, and paid subscriptions. Another record quarter is expected in the $31–32 billion range, driven by the App Store, Apple Music, and iCloud. Particular attention will be paid to sales trends in China, following local stabilization and amid fierce competition from domestic brands (including Huawei).

🔴 Amazon (AMZN). Report on July 30 after market close. The market will closely monitor AI infrastructure spending, as the full‑year CapEx forecast has approached a record $200 billion. Investors will also assess logistics margins, the impact of warehouse automation, and results from the Prime Day sales event.

High risk, for professionals.

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