Market review from UTEX — week 46

Over the week, the S&P 500 lost 2.7% — the sharpest decline since April 2025, when the market was rocked by Trump's retaliatory tariffs. The Nasdaq fell 3.4% over the week.

The main blow came on Thursday, November 5, when the Nasdaq crashed 5.5% and the S&P 500 fell 4.4% (a loss of $3 trillion in market cap). Analysts at leading English-language publications, including CNBC and The Wall Street Journal, linked the panic to the Democratic Party's victory in the congressional elections.

The market was spooked by possible scrutiny of Big Tech, tighter regulation of the AI sector, and a freeze on data center construction that newly elected Democratic governors had promised. Trump wrote: "The stock market crashed today because the 'Dumocrats' had a big Tuesday — so sad to see, you have no one to blame but yourselves!" On Friday, the market partially recovered on strong jobs data — hiring accelerated noticeably and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.

Top gainers included Alibaba Group (+11%), Toyota Motor (+10%), Amazon (+7%), GE Aerospace (+7%), and Disney (+5%). Top decliners: Dell Technologies (-22%), Micron Technology (-22%), Lam Research (-16%), SK Hynix (-14%), and Intel (-14%).

On Tuesday, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released and will shape market expectations for the Fed's December meeting. CPI is expected to slow from 0.6% to 0.3%, while core inflation is expected to slow from 0.3% to 0.2%.

Producer inflation (PPI) data will be released on Friday. The producer price index is forecast to rise 0.4% (vs. 1.3% previously), while core PPI is forecast to rise 0.3% (vs. 0.7% previously).

Earnings season has passed the halfway mark. Reporting in the coming days: Constellation Energy, Cisco, Applied Materials, Nebius, Cerebras Systems, CoreWeave, Sea Limited, AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, and Take-Two Interactive.

Top trading ideas for this week

🔴 Space stocks:

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS). Report on November 9 after market close.

Rocket Lab (RKLB). Report on November 9 after market close.

Firefly Aerospace (FLY). Report on November 10 after market close.

ASTS is down 56% over six months, RKLB is down 49%, and FLY is down 47%. On Friday, news broke that Firefly Aerospace will supply AST SpaceMobile with 36 rocket engines worth more than $1.3 billion over three years. On that news, FLY bounced 36% from its lows in a single day (the stock is down 47% over six months). Prices are quite decent for the medium term, but it's better to wait for the reports. And, of course, it's important for the market sell-off to end.

🔴 CoreWeave (CRWV). Report on November 10 after market close. A "neocloud" provider that leases compute capacity based on Nvidia graphics processors for training and running AI models. The stock has fallen 43% over the past month. The main risks are huge debt and dependence on a few large customers, which account for more than 70% of revenue. In addition, the company's growth may slow due to electricity shortages and restrictions on data center construction in the U.S. We expect very high volatility here after the report.

🔴 Cerebras Systems (CBRS). Report on November 12 after market close. Since its May IPO, the stock has fallen 74%, and 46% over the past month. A developer of ultra-large semiconductors and supercomputers for AI. A contract with OpenAI (over $20 billion) provides the bulk of demand but creates a risk of high dependence on a single customer. The market is waiting for news about new contracts with Oracle and the construction of a large data center in Finland. It is also important for investors to see that the company's business model remains sustainable. Despite the decline, analysts are positive: UBS cut its price target from $330 to $250 but maintained a "Buy" rating, while Barclays kept its target at $280. The stock looks attractive for the medium term, but it's better to wait for the report. The technology sector is under pressure right now.

🔴 Quantum stocks.

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS). Report on November 10 before market open.

Rigetti Computing (RGTI). Report on November 10 after market close.

Quantinuum (QNT).

IonQ (IONQ).

On Friday, stocks in this sector bounced from their lows: on average +20%, driven by strong reports from IonQ and Quantinuum. Short interest across all these stocks remains high, so the rebound may continue.

🔴 Nebius Group (NBIS). Report on November 12 before market open. A platform that provides access to powerful graphics clusters (Nvidia GPUs) for training and running AI models. -41% over the month. Ahead of the report, shares of AI cloud companies, including NBIS and CRWV, fell on concerns about delays in contracts with major customers, including Microsoft. The market is waiting for confirmation that Nebius is fulfilling orders on time. The company has budgeted $20–$25 billion in capital expenditures for 2026. The market will assess how successfully customer prepayments, covering 50–60% of CapEx, reduce the burden on the balance sheet. The stock is very volatile: in the last four reports, NBIS moved from -7% to +34%.

🔴 High risk, for professionals.

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